The world is awash in efforts to model a theoretical value for the stock market the CAPE ratio, for example. But while the equities hog much of the attention on this front, similar analytics for the worlds most important interest rate are no less valuable. How to begin? Not surprisingly, there are ...

http://www.capitalspectator.com/estimating-fair-value-for-the-10-year-treasury-yield/

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The US Consumer Price Index surged in April, topping estimates by a wide margin. The question is whether this is the start of an inflationary wave or just the latest run of noise? Reliably answering that question will take several months at the least, but if we ignore that caveat the numbers for ...

http://www.capitalspectator.com/how-long-will-transitory-inflation-last/

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* Israel-Palestine conflict continues to escalate, sparking fear of new war * Todays US inflation report for April is expected to show sharp increase * Signs of panic buying of gas along East Coast after pipeline shuts down * Major US fuel pipeline moving closer to reopening * US detentions ...

http://www.capitalspectator.com/macro-briefing-12-may-2021/

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* CDC says vaccinated Americans can go maskless in most settings * Fighting in Gaza intensifies as Israeli ground forces launch attacks * Fed governor Christopher Waller predicts inflation surge will be temporary * Colonial pipeline paid roughly $5 million to ransomware attackers * US Producer Price...

http://www.capitalspectator.com/macro-briefing-14-may-2021/

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* Economists expect strong acceleration in US jobs creation for April * Eurozone economy contracted in first quarter * Slower growth for Chinas mfg and services sectors in April via PMI data * Rare and perhaps fleeting bipartisan vote as Senate passes water bill * Pending US home sales rose ...

http://www.capitalspectator.com/macro-briefing-30-april-2021/

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* Germany opposes US-backed idea to waive patents on Covid-19 vaccines * Vaccines show promising results against COVID variants * Indias main opposition leader warns that Indias Covid wave threatens world * Biden administration expected to maintain limits on US investments in China * ...

http://www.capitalspectator.com/macro-briefing-7-may-2021/

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Theres no shortage of indicators to monitor for deciding if the expected runup in inflation is a temporary affair or regime shift that signals a longer-term rise in pricing pressure. I recently considered several of the usual suspects, including core inflation and the Treasury markets implied ...

http://www.capitalspectator.com/will-treasury-term-premiums-signal-higher-inflation-risk/

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* Deadly conflict continues between Israel and Palestinian militants in Gaza * Colonial Pipeline restarts operations after ransomware attack closed system * GOP Senate Leader: good chance of deal with Biden on infrastructure * US budget deficit jumps to record $1.9 trillion in first ...

http://www.capitalspectator.com/macro-briefing-13-may-2021/

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* Households in wealthy nations amassed record savingswill they spend it? * Nearly two-thirds of Americans are optimistic on direction of US, poll finds * Warren Buffett says US economy is red hot with rising inflation risk * Verizon is considering selling AOL and Yahoo remnants * Eurozone ...

http://www.capitalspectator.com/macro-briefing-3-may-2021/

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* US supports plan to waive intellectual property rules for vaccines * Treasury Dept. urges Congress to raise US debt level this summer * Worlds biggest pension fund rethinking ESG investing * Epic rally in lumber prices adds average of $36,000 to cost of new homes * Global economic growth ...

http://www.capitalspectator.com/macro-briefing-6-may-2021/

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* Major US fuel pipeline closed for third day after cybersecurity attack * Consumers feeling pinch of higher prices for goods and services * Weak jobs report creates challenges for Bidens policy agenda * GOP set for week of fierce leadership battles in House * Cryptocurrency industry hires ...

http://www.capitalspectator.com/macro-briefing-10-may-2021/

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The US economic rebound picked up speed in the first quarter and even faster growth is expected for the April-through-June period, according to a set of GDP nowcasts. Economic activity in 2021s second quarter is on track to ramp up to a sizzling 10.5% increase in gross domestic product (real annual ...

http://www.capitalspectator.com/us-economic-growth-expected-to-accelerate-in-q2/

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* Biden lifts limit on refugees allowed into US * Congressional debate set to begin on Bidens economic plan * Indias pandemic worsens as total Covid-19 cases reported surpasses 20 million * Warren Buffett names successor to run Berkshire Hathaway * Global manufacturing activity* Biden lifts limit on...

http://www.capitalspectator.com/macro-briefing-4-may-2021/

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