The BEA released the underlying details for the Q1 advance GDP report on Friday.The BEA reported that investment in non-residential structures decreased at a 4.8% annual pace in Q1. This was the sixth consecutive quarterly decline (weakness in non-residential structures started before the pandemic...

http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/CalculatedRisk/~3/01BvkBR_ud8/q1-2021-gdp-details-on-residential-and.html

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Personal comment: At the recent pace of improvement, it is possible to achieve all 3 of my criteria before July 4th. Hopefully everyone is part of the solution and is getting vaccinated!According to the CDC, on Vaccinations. Total administered: 270,832,342, as of yesterday 268,438,666. ...

http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/CalculatedRisk/~3/U3oh0_jZu6c/may-15th-covid-19-new-cases.html

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President Biden has set two vaccinations goals to achieve by July 4th:1) 70% of the population over 18 has had at least one dose of vaccine, and2) 160 million Americans fully vaccinated.According to the CDC, on Vaccinations1) 56.4% of the population over 18 has had at least one dose.2) 106.2 million...

http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/CalculatedRisk/~3/nHoMzc-m6I4/may-4th-covid-19-vaccinations-new-cases.html

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Note: Both Black Knight and the MBA (Mortgage Bankers Association) are putting out weekly estimates of mortgages in forbearance.This data is as of May 11th.From Black Knight: Forbearance Volumes Continue to DeclineWe saw another week of good news in terms of forbearance volumes, which fell by 61,000...

http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/CalculatedRisk/~3/mDQRGbPPLGM/black-knight-number-of-homeowners-in_14.html

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Government transfer payments increased sharply in March compared to February, and were $4.8 trillion (on SAAR basis) above the February 2020 level (pre-pandemic). Most of the increase in transfer payments - compared to the levels prior to the crisis - is from unemployment insurance and "other...

http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/CalculatedRisk/~3/syWhYBAWgo0/real-personal-income-less-transfer.html

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President Biden has set two vaccinations goals to achieve by July 4th:1) 70% of the population over 18 has had at least one dose of vaccine, and2) 160 million Americans fully vaccinated.According to the CDC, on Vaccinations1) 56.7% of the population over 18 has had at least one dose.2) 106.5 million...

http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/CalculatedRisk/~3/DmLjjjTja5E/may-5th-covid-19-vaccinations-new-cases.html

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The headline jobs number in the April employment report was well below expectations, and employment for the previous two months was revised down. Leisure and hospitality gained 331 thousand jobs. In March and April of 2020, leisure and hospitality lost 8.2 million jobs, and are now ...

http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/CalculatedRisk/~3/k1TRENMt7RU/comments-on-april-employment-report.html

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From the Association of American Railroads (AAR) Rail Time Indicators. Graphs and excerpts reprinted with permission. Numerous U.S. rail traffic categories have completely recovered the ground lost during the pandemic or are very close to doing so. For example, April saw a new all-time record for U....

http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/CalculatedRisk/~3/x5w2LJJIaKc/aar-april-rail-carloads-down-101.html

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Two months ago, from Jann Swanson at MortgageNewsDaily: Fannie Warns Lenders on Investment Properties and 2nd Homes. This action will result in higher interest rates on 2nd home and investment property mortgages.I'm looking at data for some second home markets - and will track those markets to ...

http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/CalculatedRisk/~3/gptRNF67z_s/second-home-market-south-lake-tahoe-in.html

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Note1: Import traffic was heavy in February and March - ships were backed up waiting to unload in LA. "some vessels are spending almost as much time at anchor as it takes to traverse the Pacific Ocean." They were still backed up in April!Note2: The expansion to the Panama Canal was completed in 2016...

http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/CalculatedRisk/~3/gXe1i-X-NiI/la-area-port-traffic-strong-imports-in.html

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President Biden has set two vaccinations goals to achieve by July 4th:1) 70% of the population over 18 has had at least one dose of vaccine, and2) 160 million Americans fully vaccinated.According to the CDC, on Vaccinations1) 57.0% of the population over 18 has had at least one dose.2) 108.1 million...

http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/CalculatedRisk/~3/l12ITaqz34g/may-6th-covid-19-vaccinations-new-cases.html

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Note: The year-over-year occupancy comparisons are easy, since occupancy declined sharply at the onset of the pandemic. However, occupancy is still down significantly from normal levels.The occupancy rate is down 17% compared to the same week in 2019.From CoStar: STR: Increased Supply Leads to Lower...

http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/CalculatedRisk/~3/S9zuO8bOZmo/hotels-occupancy-rate-down-17-compared_13.html

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Note: I'm looking forward to not posting this daily! I've been posting this data daily for over a year, and I'll stop once all three of these criteria are met:1) 70% of the population over 18 has had at least one dose of vaccine, and2) new cases are under 5,000 per day, and3) hospitalizations are ...

http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/CalculatedRisk/~3/0I8Q6Q8tTiY/may-3rd-covid-19-vaccinations-new-cases.html

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From the Fed: Industrial Production and Capacity UtilizationTotal industrial production increased 0.7 percent in April. The indexes for mining and utilities increased 0.7 percent and 2.6 percent, respectively; the index for manufacturing rose 0.4 percent despite a drop in motor vehicle assemblies ...

http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/CalculatedRisk/~3/uVfQNSjb7Os/industrial-production-increased-07.html

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Personal comment: At the recent pace of improvement, it is possible to achieve all 3 of my criteria before July 4th. Hopefully everyone is part of the solution and is getting vaccinated!According to the CDC, on Vaccinations. Total administered: 273,545,207, as of yesterday 270,832,342. ...

http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/CalculatedRisk/~3/Xy3-4Z6egZs/may-15th-covid-19-new-cases_16.html

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The Cleveland Fed released the median CPI and the trimmed-mean CPI this morning:According to the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, the median Consumer Price Index rose 0.2% April. The 16% trimmed-mean Consumer Price Index rose 0.4% in April. "The median CPI and 16% trimmed-mean CPI are measures of ...

http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/CalculatedRisk/~3/D48CFjDT1VE/cleveland-fed-key-measures-show.html

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From the Census Bureau reported that overall construction spending decreased:Construction spending during March 2021 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $1,513.1 billion, 0.2 percent above the revised February estimate of $1,509.9 billion. The March figure is 5.3 percent above the ...

http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/CalculatedRisk/~3/QHsZgmv8exU/construction-spending-increased-02-in.html

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Fannie Mae reported that the Single-Family Serious Delinquency decreased to 2.58% in March, from 2.76% in February. The serious delinquency rate is up from 0.66% in March 2020.These are mortgage loans that are "three monthly payments or more past due or in foreclosure".The Fannie Mae serious ...

http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/CalculatedRisk/~3/tDIrau0dXQo/fannie-mae-mortgage-serious-delinquency.html

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The key report scheduled for this week is the April employment report.Other key reports include April vehicle sales, and the March trade balance.For manufacturing, the April ISM manufacturing index will be released.----- Monday, May 3rd -----10:00 AM: ISM Manufacturing Index for April. The consensus...

http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/CalculatedRisk/~3/I0M1xAB5GTM/schedule-for-week-of-may-2-2021.html

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Note: I'm looking forward to not posting this daily! I've been posting this data daily for over a year, and I'll stop once all three of these criteria are met:1) 70% of the population over 18 has had at least one dose of vaccine, and2) new cases are under 5,000 per day, and3) hospitalizations are ...

http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/CalculatedRisk/~3/fVlRn5e3HXw/may-1st-covid-19-vaccinations-new-cases.html

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The key reports this week are April Housing Starts and Existing Home Sales.For manufacturing, the May NY and Philly Fed manufacturing surveys will be released.----- Monday, May 17th -----8:30 AM: The New York Fed Empire State manufacturing survey for May. The consensus is for a reading of 23.9, down...

http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/CalculatedRisk/~3/FzwgVrrK4l8/schedule-for-week-of-may-16-2021.html

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These indicators are mostly for travel and entertainment. It will interesting to watch these sectors recover as the vaccine is distributed. IMPORTANT: Be safe now - if all goes well, everyone could be vaccinated by June.----- Airlines: Transportation Security Administration...

http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/CalculatedRisk/~3/0ee9HIqAji0/seven-high-frequency-indicators-for.html

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One of the key questions for 2021 is: Will inventory increase as the pandemic subsides, or will inventory decrease further in 2021?Tracking inventory will be very important this year.
Click on graph for larger image in graph gallery.This inventory graph is courtesy of Altos Research.As of April ...

http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/CalculatedRisk/~3/BgKiRl9l8yw/housing-inventory-may-3rd-update-at.html

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From the CDC: "If youve been fully vaccinated: You can resume activities that you did prior to the pandemic. You can resume activities without wearing a mask or staying 6 feet apart, except where required by federal, state, local, tribal, or territorial laws, rules, and regulations, including local ...

http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/CalculatedRisk/~3/6zgnQDjF1TI/may-13th-covid-19-new-cases.html

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The key reports this week are April CPI and retail sales.For manufacturing, the April Industrial Production report will be released on Friday.----- Monday, May 10th -----No major economic releases scheduled.----- Tuesday, May 11th -----6:00 AM ET: NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for April.
10:00...

http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/CalculatedRisk/~3/Hl5ggpeQ12Q/schedule-for-week-of-may-9-2021.html

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President Biden has set two vaccinations goals to achieve by July 4th:1) 70% of the population over 18 has had at least one dose of vaccine, and2) 160 million Americans fully vaccinated.According to the CDC, on Vaccinations. Total administered: 259,716,989. Yesterday: 257,347,205. Daily: 2.37 ...

http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/CalculatedRisk/~3/eIV0kzzL67Q/may-9th-covid-19-vaccinations-new-cases.html

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From the NMHC: NMHC Rent Payment Tracker Finds 80.0 Percent of Apartment Households Paid Rent as of May 6The National Multifamily Housing Council (NMHC)s Rent Payment Tracker found 80.0 percent of apartment households made a full or partial rent payment by May 6 in its survey of 11.7 million units ...

http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/CalculatedRisk/~3/VGZStIw4ghU/nmhc-rent-payment-tracker-shows.html

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Fannie and Freddie earlier reported results two weeks ago for Q1 2021. Here is some information on Real Estate Owned (REOs). Note that COVID is impacting foreclosure activity, from Freddie: "The volume of foreclosures declined significantly, year-over-year, primarily due to the foreclosure ...

http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/CalculatedRisk/~3/v5qbbwNRg60/fannie-and-freddie-reo-inventory.html

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