The Labour Party has taken the lead in the Taxpayers' Union political poll for the first time since March last year as Chris Hipkins' favorability ratings soar.  The survey, conducted by Curia Market Research, has Labour up 1.1 points on last month at 35.5%, while the National Party increased just 0.4 points to 34.8%.  Act and the Greens each dropped a little over 2 points to 9.3% and 5.7%, respectively.  These results would give Labour the most seats in parliament but would likely see the right-learning coalition forming a government.

https://www.interest.co.nz/public-policy/120247/chris-hipkins-helps-labour-take-lead-taxpayer-union-political-poll-first-time

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When the United States and its G7 partners imposed sanctions on Russia's central bank and barred Western financial institutions from doing business with Russian counterparties, commentators warned of far-reaching changes in the global monetary and financial order. Other countries would see those sanctions as yet another step in the West's 'weaponization' of finance. Fearing that they, too, might one day be on the receiving end of sanctions, governments and central banks would reduce their dependence on the dollar, US banks, and the US-dominated Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication (SWIFT).

https://www.interest.co.nz/currencies/120274/barry-eichengreen-asks-why-widely-predicted-shift-toward-renminbi-dominated

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All the talk in auction rooms and open homes this year has been about first home buyers and landlords flipping from Fear Of Missing Out (FOMO) to Fear Of Over Paying (FOOP). House prices falling as much as 20% from their late 2021 peaks in Auckland City and Wellington City, and falling rents for central Auckland apartment have some people thinking in the moment that this is only the beginning of a deeper and longer fall. Any market always feels darkest before the dawn, and in the moment, feels like it can only get worse (or better if you're a first home buyer or bargain hunter).

https://www.interest.co.nz/property/117184/bernard-hickey-argues-falling-mortgages-rates-landlords-celebrating-likely-national

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‘It's important not to overreact': Australia's top economists on how to fix high inflation

https://www.interest.co.nz/bonds/117180/%E2%80%98it%E2%80%99s-important-not-overreact%E2%80%99-australia%E2%80%99s-top-economists-how-fix-high%C2%A0inflation

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Rabobank says it will need to assess any changes the Reserve Bank makes in the review of its policy for branches of overseas banks to see whether they materially impact "the economic and/or strategic viability of Rabobank's operating model in New Zealand." The Reserve Bank is proposing that all branches of overseas banks operating in NZ be restricted to wholesale business with corporates, institutions and other wholesale investors, meaning they couldn't take retail deposits or offer products or services to retail customers.

https://www.interest.co.nz/banking/117386/rbnz-review-its-policy-branches-overseas-banks-could-call-question-economic-and

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In June Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern said she was concerned about the supply of residential building supplies in NZ, and in particular, of plasterboard. Since then we've seen the introduction of a Plasterboard Taskforce and Winston Wallboard's stranglehold over the use of plasterboard for structural bracing was broken. But what difference has it made? The maker One new plant each year.  SaveBOARD co-founder Paul Charteris' business has been up and running for nine months, with its one New Zealand factory cranking out 500 boards each day made from chucked out coffee cups and rubbish, and plans to open its first Australian plant in three months time — backed by a more than A$1.

https://www.interest.co.nz/business/117402/tackling-plasterboard-crisis-manufacturer-council-inspector-and-minister-weigh

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Worsening housing affordability presents an increased risk of mortgage defaults in New Zealand, according to credit rating agency Moody's Investor Services. In a new report on covered bonds issued by NZ banks, Moody's says it expects housing affordability will remain significantly worse than the average for the last 10 years, "which is credit negative for residential mortgage covered bonds we rate in New Zealand." The report said rising interest rates meant the mortgage payments on new mortgages taken out in August this year would eat up an average of 39.

https://www.interest.co.nz/property/117675/moodys-says-worsening-housing-affordability-has-increased-risk-mortgage-defaults

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The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has increased its cash rate by 25 basis points to 2.60%.Financial markets had expected the RBA to lift the cash rate by 50 basis points.The RBA says it's committed to returning inflation to its 2% to 3% target range over time. Over the 12 months to the June 2022 quarter, Australia's Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 6.1%. The RBA says its central forecast is for CPI inflation to be around 7.75% over 2022, a little above 4% over 2023 and around 3% over 2024."The cash rate has been increased substantially in a short period of time.

https://www.interest.co.nz/bonds/117868/reserve-bank-australia-lifts-cash-rate-25-basis-points-it-assesses-outlook-inflation

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The housing investors are in full retreat after their full-on assault of the housing market in the second half of 2020 and into 2021. According to the latest figures from the Reserve Bank (RBNZ), investors had their lowest share of the total amount of mortgage money advanced last month since the RBNZ began publishing the detailed data on mortgages by buyer types in 2014. The RBNZ provided this summary of the figures. The $852 million advanced to investors in July made up just 15.8% of the $5.4 billion total mortgage money advanced.

https://www.interest.co.nz/personal-finance/117319/rbnz-figures-show-housing-investors-had-their-smallest-share-mortgage-money

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Property / news No sign of a spring breeze to lift auction activity off its current lows 31st Oct 22, 1:52pm by Greg Ninness Auction rooms around the country remained becalmed last week, with almost no change in either the number of properties being offered or the number selling under the hammer. Interest.co.nz monitored the auctions for 187 residential properties around New Zealand last week (22-28 October), compared to 186 the previous week. Of those, 61 sold under the hammer, down a smidgen from 63 the previous week.

https://www.interest.co.nz/property/118233/no-sign-spring-breeze-lift-auction-activity-its-current-lows

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Property / news ANZ warns 'this is going to hurt' as it revises interest rate forecast higher 26th Oct 22, 3:51pm by Greg Ninness ANZ's latest NZ Property Focus report is not optimistic about the outlook for the housing market. In it the bank's economists have increased their forecasts of how far interest rates will rise and housing prices will fall. "The case to hike the Official Cash Rate (OCR) by more than previously expected is strong, and we now expect two consecutive 75 basis points hikes to take the OCR to 5% come February," the report said.

https://www.interest.co.nz/property/118172/anz-warns-going-hurt-it-revises-interest-rate-forecast-higher

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Property / news The number of people on the waiting list for social housing has fallen for two consecutive quarters 14th Nov 22, 2:51pm by Greg Ninness The number of applicants waiting for social housing dropped in the September quarter for the second consecutive quarter. According to Ministry of Social Development's Housing Register, the number of applicants approved and waiting for social housing peaked at 26,868 at the end of March this year, declined slightly to 26,664 at the end of June then dropped more significantly to 24,996 at the end of September.

https://www.interest.co.nz/property/118450/number-people-waiting-list-social-housing-has-fallen-two-consecutive-quarters

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Property / news Value of new office and warehouse buildings being consented running at record levels 10th Aug 22, 1:46pm by Greg Ninness Commercial property developers are showing no lack of enthusiasm for new projects with the value of new office and warehouse projects hitting record levels in the second quarter of this year. The latest building consent figures from Statistics NZ show that $314 million of new office space was consented in the second quarter of this year, which was the most in any quarter since interest.

https://www.interest.co.nz/property/117123/value-new-office-and-warehouse-buildings-being-consented-running-record-levels

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Westpac has now followed ANZ with some ~+30 bps mortgage rate rises of their own. They have matched ANZ at 5.45% for the one year fixed rate, but have set a lower benchmark for 18 months and two years. And they have declined to follow ANZ for the three year rate up, leaving their rate at 5.65% and -30 lower than ANZ's rate for that fixed term. In fact, Westpac is now (and still) the most competitive of any of the big banks for three years fixed. Will other banks move up? It isn't certain they will, but it does seem likely.

https://www.interest.co.nz/personal-finance/117732/first-bank-take-some-mortgage-rate-space-offered-anz-recently-westpac

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The Reserve Bank's going for broke. Hopefully we won't be the ones going broke

https://www.interest.co.nz/personal-finance/118566/reserve-bank%E2%80%99s-going-broke-hopefully-we-won%E2%80%99t-be-ones-going-broke

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The first home buyers (FHBs) are continuing to make their presence strongly felt in the mortgage market - even as overall levels of mortgage advances still languish in the wake of the buying frenzy in 2020-21. Latest mortgage lending by borrower type figures for October from the Reserve Bank (RBNZ) show that of the $5.588 billion total advanced in the month, some $1.219 billion (21.8% of the total) was to the FHB grouping. That's easily a new record high percentage in a data series that's been published since 2014, beating the previous high of just 20.

https://www.interest.co.nz/personal-finance/118564/rbnz-figures-show-first-home-buyers-had-their-biggest-share-mortgage-money

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Bonds / news NZ Govt Bond Tender #840; Tender Date 1 December 2022 1st Dec 22, 2:10pm by Suhaimi Mohamad The New Zealand Debt Management Office has announced the results of NZ Govt Bond tender number 840 held on Dec 31 2022. Tender Date: Thursday, Dec 1, 2022. Bids close: 2.00pm Results: From 2.05pm Settlement Date: Tuesday, Dec 6 2022 p>  (1) Nominal Bonds - Series Offered : 4.50% 15 Apr 2027   Dec 1- #840 Sep 29- #832 Sep 15- #830 Sep 1- #828 Series Offered : 4.50% 15 Apr 2027         Total Amount offered ($million) 150 200 200 200 Total Amount Allocated ($million) 150 200 200 200 Total Number of bids Received 26 46 50 35 Total Amount of bids Received ($million) 395 361 568 448 Total Number of Successful bids 10 24 1 14 Highest Yield Accepted (%) 4.

https://www.interest.co.nz/bonds/118705/nz-govt-bond-tender-840-tender-date-1-december-2022

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Treasury is forecasting government financial support will have less and less impact on economic demand over coming years, meaning fiscal policy should support Reserve Bank monetary policy efforts to rein in inflation. In the Government's Half-Year Economic and Fiscal Update (HYEFU) out Wednesday, The Treasury says the strategy of returning the Operating Balance Before Gains and Losses (OBEGAL) to surplus, from deficit, by 2024/25 and to retain current settings for allowances for new operating spending, should see a net reduction in public demand, helping cool inflation and reducing the need for the Reserve Bank to continue raising interest rates.

https://www.interest.co.nz/public-policy/118893/government-financial-support-economic-demand-tailing-leading-reducing-demand

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On Wednesday, we will get the December CPI data. The average analyst expectation is for inflation to have been running at 7.1% in the December quarter. Unless something materially changes, it may come in lower in Q1-2023 as the inflationary trend eases. Meanwhile, a challenger bank launched a 6% term deposit offer for a one year term. That will make savers more motivated to get their money working harder. We haven't been this close to the CPI rate for a 1 year TD in a very long time. In fact, the new SBS Bank 6% offer is the highest from any bank since November 2008.

https://www.interest.co.nz/personal-finance/119334/sbs-bank-has-launched-6-rate-offer-12-month-term-deposit-highest-rate-offer

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Prime Minister-elect Chris Hipkins has pledged at his first full press conference since the Labour Caucus confirmed he was their sole choice to be Prime Minister to ‘rein in programmes and projects that aren't essential right now', appearing to a suggest a tightening of fiscal policy. He also said the Government's sole focus was on the economy and dealing with cost of living and inflation issues that had developed globally and here since Covid. He signalled his new cabinet, which he would announce next week, would tighten spending on some projects.

https://www.interest.co.nz/public-policy/119318/pm-elect-chris-hipkins-says-first-news-conference-he-wants-ditch-unnecessary

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If you promote it, they will come. The recent moves by some of the major banks to advertise three-year fixed mortgage rates at rates appreciably lower  than shorter term rates has seen a marked spike in new mortgage customers taking out that term. However, for owner-occupiers, the one-year fixed rates remain the most popular. These are the stand out points for the May month in the Reserve Bank's new data series that covers new lending or facilities loaded in the reporting month. This is different to other RBNZ series on mortgage lending, which report new mortgages on the basis of when they have been committed to, rather than when they've actually been taken up.

https://www.interest.co.nz/personal-finance/122874/new-data-series-reserve-bank-shows-recent-promotion-lower-interest-rates

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A panel of experts will consider consents for three proposed wind farms in Auckland, Manawatu, and Southland as part of a fast-track resource consent process.  The three farms have the potential to cut about 150 million kilograms of carbon emissions, generate 419 megawatts of electricity at peak output, and create up to 840 construction jobs. The largest of the three was Contact Energy's proposed Southland Wind Farm east of Wyndham, which would operate 55 wind turbines and generate 300 Mw at peak output.

https://www.interest.co.nz/public-policy/123510/three-wind-farms-and-nine-solar-panel-projects-be-put-consenting-panel-fast

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Government set to gut loan affordability rules in CCCFA review to make sure people can borrow when they have good credit

https://www.interest.co.nz/banking/123552/government-set-gut-loan-affordability-rules-cccfa-review-make-sure-people-can-borrow

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The New Zealand Tax Podcast – The Generic Tax Policy Process: consultation or lobbying? Finding a permanent solution to funding managed retreat. When social media influencers go bad

https://www.interest.co.nz/public-policy/123766/new-zealand-tax-podcast-%E2%80%93-generic-tax-policy-process-consultation-or-lobbying

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The Government will cut $3.4 billion from its four year operating budget, as it works to keep debt under 30% of gross domestic product and return the Crown accounts to surplus.  Budget 2023 expanded annual spending and increased future operating allowances, based on Treasury's optimistic forecasts, which have already proved wrong.  When the Crown accounts were released in July, tax revenue had already fallen more than $2 billion behind what Treasury had forecast just a few months earlier.  This month, economists at Westpac NZ estimated the tax shortfall would continue and deficits would almost double across the forecast period.

https://www.interest.co.nz/public-policy/123988/finance-minister-grant-robertson-said-money-saved-would-help-offset-growing

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National's disciplined spending would 'get debt under control' while still investing in health, education, and infrastructure, Nicola Willis says

https://www.interest.co.nz/public-policy/124283/national%E2%80%99s-disciplined-spending-would-get-debt-under-control-while-still

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The Climate Change Commission (CCC) says it proposes recommending the Government revisit the design of the incentives created by the New Zealand Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) to ensure it supports the desired outcomes for the transition to net zero long-lived gas emissions. The existing ETS architecture, combined with the relatively low cost of using forests to capture carbon, is likely to result in extensive afforestation in the near term, which in turn is likely to slow efforts to reduce emissions at their source.

https://www.interest.co.nz/rural-news/120974/angus-kebbell-says-it-one-thing-climate-change-commission-require-more-emissions

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The Government will give the Defence Force (NZDF) over $419 million to spend on wages for its staff which have been leaving the organisation at record rates in recent years.  Soldiers, sailors and aviators will get an annual pay increase of between $4,000 and $15,000 starting from July 1.  Defence Minister Andrew Little said the boosted pay rate would help to attract and retain more New Zealanders in defence jobs. 'This increase is four times greater than any previous defence remuneration boost over the past decade.

https://www.interest.co.nz/public-policy/121120/defence-minister-andrew-little-details-pay-rises-defence-force-personnel

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Te wiki o te tāke; Government moves on the global minimum tax rate, sorts out a long standing over taxation issue, and fast-tracks a new Tax Principles Act

https://www.interest.co.nz/public-policy/121557/te-wiki-o-te-t%C4%81ke-government-moves-global-minimum-tax-rate-sorts-out-long

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Building and Construction Minister Megan Woods says four alternative plasterboard products can now be used as substitutes for GIB following the establishment of the government taskforce last month to tackle plasterboard shortages.Below is a statement from Woods. Plasterboard taskforce update ·Four alternative plasterboard products able to be used as substitutes for GIB ·12 importers of plasterboard– four of them new - have 100 containers of product en route to New Zealand ·Regular updating of guidance and ongoing communication with sector to encourage use of alternative products ·Step-by-step, practical information for plasterboard merchants and builders to be released this week ·Kāinga Ora procures alternative product for retrofit programme, taking pressure off domestic supply chains and providing market certainty for alternative products.

https://www.interest.co.nz/property/116929/twelve-importers-have-100-containers-plasterboard-their-way-nz-building

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