Today, we are pleased to present a guest contribution bySteven Kamin(AEI), formerly Director of the Division of International Finance at the Federal Reserve Board. The views presented represent those of the authors, and not necessarily those of the institutions the authors are affiliated with. The ...

http://econbrowser.com/archives/2021/05/guest-contribution-the-impact-of-covid-19-on-global-industrial-production

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Monthly GDP figures were released by IHS-Markit yesterday, showing a rebound in March. In the context of key macro indicators followed by the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee: Figure 1: Nonfarm payroll employment from March release (dark blue), Bloomberg consensus as of 4/30 for April nonfarm ...

http://econbrowser.com/archives/2021/05/business-cycle-indicators-as-of-may-4th

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ADP private nonfarm change at 742K below consensus of 800K (Bloomberg). Figure 1: Private nonfarm payroll employment from BLS October release (black), Bloomberg consensus for April as of 5/5 (teal square), ADP November release (red), all on log scale. Source: BLS, ADP via FRED, Bloomberg, and ...

http://econbrowser.com/archives/2021/05/private-nonfarm-payroll-employment-in-april

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Euro area GDP continues to drop in Q1, while the US recovery accelerates. Figure 1: US real GDP (blue), Euro Area 19 real GDP (red), both in logs, 2019Q4=0. Source: BEA, European Union, and authors calculations.Euro area GDP continues to drop in Q1, while the US recovery accelerates.

Figure ...

http://econbrowser.com/archives/2021/05/diverging-fortunes-us-and-euro-area-gdp

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Using an incredibly powerful device called the Google, I have discovered new prototype data releases regarding the distributional aspects of real personal income. Here are some figures depicting income accruing to select household income percentiles, contributions to income growth ...

http://econbrowser.com/archives/2021/05/distributional-data-from-the-national-income-and-product-accounts

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Given the employment surprise (NFP 266K actual vs. 978K expected), it would be remarkable if interest rates did not respond. Stock indices did drop, then recovered to pre-surprise trend. Five year bond yields did drop somewhat. Figure 1: Treasury five year constant maturity yield (blue, left scale...

http://econbrowser.com/archives/2021/05/the-employment-surprise-and-bond-yields

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Or, between identities and functions. Reader Corev comments: Im amazed at the willful deceit and cognitive dissonance exhibited by liberals, especially economists. With production components, commodities prices, rising by YUGE fractional amounts, these same folks can not admit their ...

http://econbrowser.com/archives/2021/05/relative-vs-general-price-changes

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The employment surprise demand shortfall, supply constraints, or statistical artefact? I discussed on WPR Central Time yesterday. Did enhanced unemployment benefits reduce employment? Long term unemployment decreased, as did unemployment claims. So likely not. On the other hand, two pieces ...

http://econbrowser.com/archives/2021/05/interpreting-the-labor-market

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While aggregate consumption has surpassed peak levels, it hasnt returned to trend. Furthermore, the composition has changed drastically. Figure 1: Total consumption expenditures in Ch.2012$ (bold black), services (blue), nondurables (green) and durables (brown), all in logs, 2020M02=0, and ...

http://econbrowser.com/archives/2021/05/the-composition-of-consumption

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April industrial production figures were released yesterday. Heres a depiction of these figures in the context of key macro indicators followed by the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee: Figure 1:Nonfarm payroll employment from April release (dark blue), Bloomberg consensus as of 4/30 for April ...

http://econbrowser.com/archives/2021/05/business-cycle-indicators-mid-may

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Income distribution statistics come out annually, but net worth (asset/liability) distribution comes out quarterly. Source: Federal Reserve Board, Financial Accounts of the United States, via FRED.Income distribution statistics come out annually, but net worth (asset/liability) distribution comes ...

http://econbrowser.com/archives/2021/05/net-worth-at-median-and-above

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The simple conventionally reported inflation breakeven calculation might be misleading. Figure 1.Five year inflation breakeven calculated as five year Treasury yield minus five year TIPS yield (blue), five year breakeven adjusted by term premium and liquidity premium per DKW, all in...

http://econbrowser.com/archives/2021/05/diverging-market-based-inflation-expectations-at-5-year-horizon

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Surveys indicate some acceleration, vis a vis last month. Figure 1:CPI inflation year-on-year (black), median expected from Survey of Professional Forecasters (blue +), median expected from Michigan Survey of Consumers (red), median from NY Fed Survey of Consumer Expectations (light green), forecast...

http://econbrowser.com/archives/2021/05/inflation-expectations-mid-may

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